mmm

Invocation#

echo-cli mmm fit --weeks <weeks> --currency <code> --outcome-event <name> [--value-property <name>] --sigmas <n> --carryover <share> --by <name>
echo-cli mmm list

Inputs and output#

fit writes the stored fit: id, fitted_at, fitted_by, currency, outcome_event, value_property, sigmas, panel (from, to, channels and, per week, each channel's spend, costs — the part of that spend recorded with analytics costs record — and the outcome) and fit: baseline and, per channel, coefficient and contribution, each with estimate, standard_error, low and high, plus carryover, r_squared and residual_degrees_of_freedom. list writes every stored fit, newest first; a fit stored before carry-over was fitted has no carryover and was fitted on each week's spend alone, and a panel stored before recorded costs were read has no costs.

State effect#

Both verbs call Echo Web's authenticated /api/analytics/mmm with ECHO_INTERNAL_BEARER at ECHO_WEB_BASE_URL; the Marketing mix section of the tracking screen and of Echo Desktop's GEO screen fits and lists the same, and echo-mcp lists fits (echo_list_mmm_fits) but cannot fit. The panel holds the last --weeks whole ISO weeks, ending at the start of the current one: each channel's spend in --currency — the ad spend its platform reported, read from ad_campaign_metrics through the campaigns of ad accounts that declare that currency, plus the costs recorded for that channel in that currency (channel_costs, as echo-cli analytics costs record writes them: agency fees, sponsorships, or a channel with no ads at all), each spread evenly over the days its period covers — and each week's outcome, the count of web and mobile events named --outcome-event or, with --value-property, the sum of the number each holds there. Each channel's spend is turned into adstock: a week's adstock is its spend plus --carryover times the adstock of the week before (0 is the week's spend alone; 0.5 keeps half of last week's effect), so spend keeps working after the week it was paid in. The model is ordinary least squares of the outcome on a baseline and each channel's log(1 + adstock), so each channel's returns diminish; an interval is the estimate plus or minus --sigmas standard errors, and a contribution is the coefficient times the channel's summed log adstock. mmm allocate reads the same carry-over: a steady weekly spend builds an adstock of spend / (1 - carryover). Every fit is stored with its panel; nothing is overwritten.

Refusals#

• A wrong invocation is refused before anything is sent: "mmm takes fit …; list; forecast …; got <word>", "mmm fit does not take <flag>; it takes …", "<flag> needs a value", "mmm fit needs <flag>" for each of --weeks, --currency, --outcome-event, --sigmas, --carryover and --by, "--weeks must be a number; got <text>" (and --sigmas and --carryover) and "mmm list takes nothing; got …"; forecast is described on the mmm-forecast page.
• Echo Web answers a bad request with "weeks must be a positive whole number: how many whole weeks the panel holds", "currency is required: …", "outcome_event is required: …", "sigmas must be a positive number: how many standard errors each interval spans", "carryover is required as a number", "carryover must be at least 0 and below 1: the share of a week's spend effect carried into the next week, 0 for none; got <value>", "campaign <id> reported no spend on <day>, so its week cannot be measured", "an <event> event at <time> holds no number under <property>, so the week's outcome cannot be summed", "the panel holds no channel with spend in that currency, so there is nothing to fit", "the model needs at least <n> weeks (one per channel, one for the baseline and one to measure the error); the panel has <m>", "the panel cannot separate <channel> from the others: its spend is the same every week or moves exactly with another channel's" or "the outcome is the same every week of the panel, so no spend can explain it".